As expected the time has come that the United States is making its decision about withdrawing some of its troops from Afghanistan. While it would be a welcome step had there been a complete success of the war on terror in Afghanistan and Pakistan, even a commencement of the process is to be taken as good omen for all concerned. However, there are many issues that need to be looked at in this regard.

July is fast approaching and President Obama is at the brink of announcing his decision regarding the exact date and number of US forces he would like to withdraw from Afghanistan. Presently, there are about 100,000 American troops in Afghanistan. The US Senate Arms Committee's Chairman has said he favors withdrawal of 15,000 troops from Afghanistan this year and Senator Mc Cain has advised withdrawal of no more than 5,000 troops this year. Some members of the coalition fighting the war of terror side by side with the US and Afghan forces have already made their preference for withdrawing part or all of their forces from Afghanistan.

The question however is not only the number of forces that will be withdrawn, but also the readiness of the Afghan government forces comprising of the army and the police to take over the huge responsibility of maintaining security in that troubled land. Important factors in play in this regard are many and many-faceted. This is important because of the ongoing war with Taleban in the country and the inability of the Afghan government to maintain authority over many of the provincial administrations and situations. Furthermore, the quality and quantity of the Afghan forces to replace many of the tasks now carried out by the coalition forces need to be studied. Let us study all of this in the light of a number of social and political issues.

Presently close to three hundred thousand Afghan troops and policemen are in the employ of the government of Afghanistan. It is suggested that number-wise a more workable number for maintenance of security would be around 400,000. Also presently, it is estimated that nearly 90% of the current Afghan forces is illiterate. The question has been raised if there is a relationship between the quality of the military action and literacy. It has been stated that there is a definite relationship between literacy and training. Therefore there would be need for improvement on the quality of these forces.

Another important issue would be meeting their salary requirements. Although Afghanistan is sitting on large sources of mineral reserves, its present NDP is made up of 97% of foreign aid. As a matter of fact there has been an input of almost 19 billion Dollars in aid into Afghanistan during the past decade. Therefore, an assurance is needed to be given to the government of Afghanistan of sustained assistance with payment of salaries of the Afghan forces until such a time that the government could take it up.

On the other had, it is well established that the Afghans are fiercely independent people and continued existence of foreign troops on their land has injured their national pride to some degree. A pull out of foreign forces would therefore be considered a positive development in that respect. But the threat of the black reactionary forces of the Taleban that unfortunately is still sustained in Pakistan would still cast a dark shadow over the hope for a secure Afghanistan unless peaceful measures are adopted and political settlements are sought to the problem. It is well known by now that both the US and the Afghan government want some sort of talks with Taleban in this regard. However, Taleban have continued to evade such a gesture and political atmosphere has continued to be confused as with whom should the talks be held.

It is worth mentioning that there has been a lack of a well thought strategy to expose the Taleban movement for what it is. The Afghan government has consistently abstained from statements that would be derogatory towards Taleban fearing losing an opportunity to talk with them. It is also a well known fact that in situations when your enemy is invisible you can still talk to him using the mass media of communication and even better, you can tell on him and his schemes to the general public. In the past many years I have failed to find anything in the media to refer to the person, education, policies and works even within the system of the clergy of Mullah Mohammad Omar, a reclusive, reactionary lacking a clear cut vision or perception of the 21st century. When the public is informed about the factual shortcomings of a so-called leader they themselves would try to convict him in the court of public opinion.

Another issue worth considering is improving of governance in the country. A weak government that has failed to match even the black administration of the Taleban who were able to at least maintain security in towns and villages, cannot help in drawing the cooperation of the public that is of utmost importance in the era of post US troops withdrawal. Therefore there is a dire need of improving the scope and the effectiveness of the writ of the government beyond Kabul. This could be achieved when the government is able to wipeout corruption, show the guts to stand up to regional warlords and provincial centers of personal power, take firm steps in brining any and all who have breached the law especially powerful warlords to justice.

A final issue we need to look at in this article is the continued strategically important issue of the form of American military presence in Afghanistan. It would be na�ve to think that the US is not interested in keeping its presence in the strategically important south-central nation. There have been arguments and analyses of this issue. There has been talk of permanent US bases in Afghanistan and most recently the outgoing Secretary of the US Defense Department has suggested a formula that calls for the existence of an agreed upon number of US troops to stay in Afghanistan, but in joint bases with the Afghan forces rather than in separate establishments that might incite opposition. In this regard a document that is currently being worked on by the Karzai government would tell us of the stand of his government. But it is super important that any such agreement or document should have the approval of the representatives of the nation something that president Karzai of Afghanistan has already suggested.

Let us hope that the US decision to withdraw forces from Afghanistan in this post Al-Qaeda and Osama era would serve the interests of the Afghan nation as well as those of the United States that has made sacrifices in men and money towards ridding Afghanistan of terror, providing her with relative security and hope for prosperity. 6/12/11