Perhaps in the beginning, Afghanistan was considered an easy, short term project where American and its allied troops could go in, clean up the country of all threats of terror, defeat centers of terror and safe havens for Al-Qaida, and leave behind a stable and secure government that would be friendly to the West in general and then get out. Well, that was not to be. It was easy to go to war and now it is more difficult to end it. There has been some achievements. Al-Qaeda has been driven out of the country and centers of training for terrorists have been wiped out, but the war continued; complete success remained evasive, the enemy persistent and the Afghan government inefficient and weak. Where do we go from here?

Now, President Obama has found himself under pressure to make some difficult decisions about recalling some of the US troops back home. Doing so, he would widen the prospects of his success in presidential elections next year. He would help making huge savings in war expenditures and would remove many US young lives out of harm's way. War is bad for any country.

He has therefore decided to withdraw five thousand troops immediately from Afghanistan with another five thousand to be called back by the end of this year and 23,000 more troops to come home by the end of 2012. This would mean a savings of war expenditure by over thirty billion dollars. President Obama has said that his decision has been made from a position of success and strength.

The repercussions of the 30% troop withdrawal from Afghanistan by the end of 2012 constitute a great subject for consideration from many points of view. It is almost certain that Taleban would claim credit by saying that they were able to force yet another superpower to begin to wind up its war in Afghanistan. That may be why the US has started direct talks with the extremist movement it started to fight against in 2001. But any concession to the Taliban would give rise to further political problems within Afghanistan and in the region. It is hard to believe that Taliban movement is ready to listen to reason, to recognize human rights as perceived by the world in the 21st century and ratify the democratic constitution of Afghanistan. On the other hand already ethnic minorities are showing signs of fear that the country may return to the era when Taliban were in power. They have already started thinking of colluding with some regional powers such as Iran, Russia and India, to organize a strong opposition to the Taliban and for that purpose to the Pashtun majority. This may yet be one of the gravest repercussions of US troop withdrawals, and may ignite the fire of civil war the containment of which would require greater effort and cost in lives and money.

The Second issue of political importance is the filling up of the vacuum of military power when the US troops leave. The Afghan army and police may or may not be ready to maintain peace. The reason for this could be political intervention by ethnic and even geographical groupings on the one hand, and lack of sufficient training and resources on the other. For one thing, the army and the police in Afghanistan are paid for from the US aid grants. The US spent $ 1.3 billion on Afghan Security Forces in 2005. That amount reached a staggering $ 11.6 billion this year. Could the Afghan government meet that kind of expenditure on its own?

Another important issue is numbers of Afghan Security Forces troops. Presently ANSF is numbered at 279,000. This includes 166,000 in the army and 131,000 in the police force. It is expected that by October this year the number would reach 305,000. An estimate of the country's need for security forces suggested that it needs at least 400,000 troops to be able to carry out the job. When and how is the gap going to be filled?

The United States spent $ 43 billion on the Afghan war in 2008. That figure rose to $ 118 billion this year. When the troops leave, could the Afghan government pay for the continuation of war with the so-called Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, or the Taliban who have vowed to increase their violence even in the face of the US gesture of the gradual withdrawal of its forces?

Other repercussions of the US troop withdrawal would be its impact on local economy that might be adversely affected. As the troops leave, so do jobs that had been created in and around US military bases. These numbered in thousands. In a country already suffering from monumental unemployment, this would prove an additional burden especially considering that the government still has to go a long way to improve Afghanistan's economy. Afghanistan sits on huge mineral resources and is considered one of the richest countries in the region for minerals of high importance for new technology. However all of this remains untapped. Local capacity of exploitation of these resources does not exist. Foreign sources are interested, but hesitant to invest in Afghanistan because of the grave security situation.

However, US troop withdrawal was from the beginning the end game of the war on terror in Afghanistan and it is entering its last phase that is the beginning of the end. This is a reality that must be addressed prudently and wisely.

Therefore, there is a need for planning the post US troop era in Afghanistan as of now. A well thought strategic cooperation with the United States is a most logical undertaking. However, such a strategy must consider the long term needs of Afghanistan, its empowerment to maintain security inside the country and to tame the hegemony of its neighbors namely Pakistan and Iran. The US, immediately after the withdrawal of the Soviet forces from Afghanistan left this country at the mercy of the military generals of Pakistan and we all saw the result of Pakistani intervention in the affairs of Afghanistan and its plans for political and even administrative domination of the country through Taliban that were created, armed, trained and brought to power in Afghanistan, so that they would serve as puppets of the Pakistani government. It would be much worse if the same was repeated. It is true that the US has legitimate interest in keeping good relations with Pakistan, although Pakistanis have not shown sincerity in helping with the war on terror or any interest in helping peace in Afghanistan. On the contrary they have instigated violence, have let extremists cross the border at will, commit crimes and acts of violence in Afghanistan and return to their bases and camps in Pakistan.

The US government should consider that security in a united Afghanistan that is immune from foreign intervention in the region is to the benefit of all concerned and therefore should work towards that lofty goal. It should refrain from supporting ethnic groupings in Afghanistan, and provide for preventing possibility of Iranian, Pakistani, Indian and Russian mingling in the affairs of that country. These could be incorporated in a treaty of strategic cooperation between the United States and Afghanistan which is currently under consideration. 6/23 /11